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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to CAR 1 for 2 yards (95-Ch.Johnson; 98-S.Lotulelei).

The Three Options

GO +3.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.06 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 3, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model