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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to PHI 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 38-K.Barner.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.49 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model