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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

CHI
22.2%
BAL
77.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BAL: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.014 vs Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.538 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 17
–
BAL 26
Projected margin: BAL by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CHI

John Timu LB Out Knee
Markus Wheaton WR Out Groin
Hroniss Grasu C Questionable Hand
Nick Kwiatkoski DT Questionable Chest

BAL

Matt Skura C Out Knee
Terrance West RB Out Calf
Tim Williams LB Doubtful Thigh
Brandon Williams DT Doubtful Foot
Breshad Perriman WR Questionable Knee
Maxx Williams TE Questionable Ankle
Carl Davis DT Questionable Thigh
Jaylen Hill CB Questionable Thigh
Anthony Levine S Questionable Thigh
Jeremy Maclin WR Questionable Shoulder
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Achilles

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 27
–
BAL 24

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:58 FG CHI (10:58) 4-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – BAL 0
  • Q2 03:00 TD CHI (3:00) 29-T.Cohen pass deep right to 86-Z.Miller for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Cohen tosses TD pass on halfback option. CHI 9 – BAL 0
  • Q2 00:08 FG BAL (:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CHI 10 – BAL 3
  • Q3 06:06 TD CHI (6:06) (No Huddle) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-D.Sims for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-M.Judon]. CHI 16 – BAL 3
  • Q3 06:01 TD BAL 4-C.Barth kicks 61 yards from CHI 35 to BAL 4. 31-B.Rainey for 96 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CHI 17 – BAL 9
  • Q4 11:39 FG BAL (11:39) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CHI 17 – BAL 13
  • Q4 05:29 TD CHI (5:29) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 10-C.Moore INTERCEPTED by 38-A.Amos (23-K.Fuller) at CHI 10. 38-A.Amos for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. CHI 23 – BAL 13
  • Q4 03:01 FG BAL (3:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CHI 24 – BAL 16
  • Q4 01:55 TD BAL (1:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 24 – BAL 22
  • Q5 02:11 FG CHI (2:11) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 27 – BAL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to CHI 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-88-V.Mayle.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (8:23) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to BAL 9, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds. CHI-27-S.McManis was injured during the play.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:24) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to CHI 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 25 for 7 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.; 99-M.Judon).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:57) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to BAL 11, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to CHI 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 35 for -1 yards (13-C.Matthews).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (10:58) 4-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:42) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 58 yards to BAL 13, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 26 for 13 yards (30-B.Cunningham).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to CHI 35, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-51-K.Correa.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 19 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (1:51) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to BAL 27, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 36 for 9 yards (15-J.Bellamy).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%

    (11:52) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to BAL 16, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 67 yards to CHI 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 34 for 21 yards (36-C.Clark).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:21) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 67 yards to BAL 13, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 30 for 17 yards (58-J.Anderson).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:39) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 62 yards to CHI 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 21 for 16 yards (41-A.Levine Sr.; 99-M.Judon).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (11:39) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 70%

    (6:31) 37-J.Allen left guard to CHI 30 for 2 yards (39-E.Jackson).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 73%

    (3:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:23) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to BAL 28, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 44 for 16 yards.