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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 80

Chicago Bears 17 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(4:21) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 67 yards to BAL 13, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 30 for 17 yards (58-J.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -2.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model