4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 77

Chicago Bears 24 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to BAL 28, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 44 for 16 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.22 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -2.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model