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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 48

Chicago Bears 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:23) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to BAL 9, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds. CHI-27-S.McManis was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model