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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to CHI 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-88-V.Mayle.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.50 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 22, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP