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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 32

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 37-J.Allen left guard to CHI 30 for 2 yards (39-E.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.55 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model