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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 74

Chicago Bears 10 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to BAL 27, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 36 for 9 yards (15-J.Bellamy).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.03 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model