4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.56 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model