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HC Pete Carroll
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2017-10-08 · 16:05 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

SEA
59.6%
LA
40.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): -0.130 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 24
–
LA 20
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

SEA

Cliff Avril DE Out Neck
Quinton Jefferson DT Out Hand
Jeremy Lane CB Doubtful Groin
C.J. Prosise RB Doubtful Ankle
Michael Wilhoite LB Questionable Hamstring

LA

Lamarcus Joyner S Doubtful Hamstring
Jamon Brown G Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 16
–
LA 10

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:20 TD LA (14:20) (Shotgun) 11-T.Austin right guard for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – LA 6
  • Q2 09:34 FG LA (9:34) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SEA 0 – LA 10
  • Q2 02:00 TD SEA (2:00) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-J.Graham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – LA 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG SEA (:02) 7-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 10 – LA 10
  • Q3 05:47 FG SEA (5:47) 7-B.Walsh 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 13 – LA 10
  • Q4 01:12 FG SEA (1:12) 7-B.Walsh 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 16 – LA 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 20 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:14) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to LA 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 38. 11-T.Austin to LA 38 for no gain (19-T.McEvoy).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 29%

    (5:09) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to LA 7, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 18-C.Kupp.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:33) 6-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to SEA 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 32 for 10 yards (24-B.Countess).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:36) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to LA 29, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by SEA-23-N.Thorpe at LA 30. 23-N.Thorpe to LA 30 for no gain (36-D.Hatfield).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (9:34) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 34 yards to SEA 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 80%

    (:02) 7-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 12 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (10:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 76%

    (5:47) 7-B.Walsh 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:35) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to LA 29, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 18-C.Kupp.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to SEA 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:57) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to LA 33, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott. PENALTY on LA-36-D.Hatfield, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 33.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 2 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 61%

    (4:27) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to LA 7, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-J.Coleman.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (1:12) 7-B.Walsh 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.03 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 18-C.Kupp.