Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to LA 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-T.Austin MUFFS catch, and recovers at LA 38. 11-T.Austin to LA 38 for no gain (19-T.McEvoy).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model