Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to LA 33, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-69-T.Ott. PENALTY on LA-36-D.Hatfield, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.90 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model