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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 51

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to LA 7, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 18-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.59 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP