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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 9-J.Ryan punts 44 yards to LA 29, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 18-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.02 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model