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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 31

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 7-B.Walsh 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.93 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP