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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 84

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 6-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to SEA 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 32 for 10 yards (24-B.Countess).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.99 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 84, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP