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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2017-10-08 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

BUF
42.0%
CIN
58.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CIN): -0.014 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

BUF 20
–
CIN 22
Projected margin: CIN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

BUF

Ramon Humber LB Out Thumb
Jordan Matthews WR Out Thumb
E.J. Gaines CB Questionable Groin
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Foot
Micah Hyde S Questionable Knee
Shareece Wright CB Questionable Back

CIN

Tyler Eifert TE Out Back
Ryan Hewitt TE Out Knee
John Ross WR Out Knee
Derron Smith S Out Ankle
Jordan Evans LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 16
–
CIN 20

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:39 TD CIN (11:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 18-A.Green for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 00:15 FG BUF (:15) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – CIN 7
  • Q2 09:05 FG CIN (9:05) 4-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. BUF 3 – CIN 10
  • Q2 03:15 TD BUF (3:15) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 15-B.Tate for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – CIN 10
  • Q3 01:59 FG BUF (1:59) 4-S.Hauschka 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 13 – CIN 10
  • Q4 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – CIN 16
  • Q4 09:03 FG BUF (9:03) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 16 – CIN 17
  • Q4 03:37 FG CIN (3:37) 4-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. BUF 16 – CIN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:17) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to BUF 10, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:51) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to CIN 37, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 33 for -4 yards (57-L.Alexander; 58-M.Milano). PENALTY on CIN-16-C.Core, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 33. {Erickson credited with 0 yard return due to the penalty occurring behind where the kick was received}

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:39) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to CIN 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 14. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 14 for no gain (18-A.Holmes).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:31) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate to BUF 15 for 1 yard (42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (:15) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 95%

    (9:05) 4-R.Bullock 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 32%

    (5:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:00) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to BUF 13, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (:25) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:43) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to CIN 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 28 for 5 yards (14-J.Webb).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 20 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 32%

    (10:26) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to CIN 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 89%

    (1:59) 4-S.Hauschka 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:54) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to CIN 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 15 for -1 yards (26-T.Jones).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:52) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to BUF 36, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at CIN 24 for 40 yards (82-C.Carter). PENALTY on CIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced at CIN 24. {penalty called as official ran into personnel off the Bengals bench}

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (9:03) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (3:37) 4-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.