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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 46

Buffalo Bills 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to CIN 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.26 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model