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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 57

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to BUF 10, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.91 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP