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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 13

Buffalo Bills 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.24 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model