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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 4-S.Hauschka 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.68 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 20, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model