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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 11

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 4-R.Bullock 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +4.96 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model