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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 4-S.Hauschka 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.12 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 10, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model