4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 46

Buffalo Bills 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.16 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP