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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

PHI
44.4%
LAC
55.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) -0.010 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) -0.020 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: LAC by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

PHI

Fletcher Cox DT Out Calf
Ronald Darby CB Out Ankle
Corey Graham S Out Hamstring
Destiny Vaeao DT Out Wrist
Jaylen Watkins S Out Hamstring
Jordan Hicks LB Questionable Ankle
Rodney McLeod S Questionable Hamstring

LAC

Mike Williams WR Out Back
Joe Barksdale T Questionable Foot
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Knee
Sean McGrath TE Questionable Foot
Hayes Pullard LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 26
–
LAC 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:05 TD PHI (8:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 00:10 FG PHI (:10) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 10 – LAC 0
  • Q2 06:47 FG PHI (6:47) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 13 – LAC 0
  • Q2 06:42 TD LAC (6:42) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 16-Ty.Williams for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – LAC 6
  • Q2 04:13 FG PHI (4:13) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 16 – LAC 7
  • Q2 00:04 FG LAC (:04) 9-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. PHI 16 – LAC 10
  • Q3 01:01 FG PHI (1:01) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 19 – LAC 10
  • Q4 13:50 TD LAC (13:50) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 19 – LAC 16
  • Q4 09:18 TD PHI (9:18) (Shotgun) 28-W.Smallwood up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 25 – LAC 17
  • Q4 06:48 TD LAC (6:48) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short middle to 86-H.Henry. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 86-H.Henry for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 26 – LAC 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:49) 8-D.Kaser punts 50 yards to PHI 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-K.Barner to PHI 20 for 5 yards (43-M.Davis, 30-A.Ekeler). PENALTY on PHI-52-N.Goode, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at PHI 16.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 81%

    (:10) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 31%

    (12:07) 8-D.Kaser punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 13 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

    (6:47) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 64%

    (4:13) 4-J.Elliott 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:05) 8-D.Kaser punts 53 yards to PHI 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-K.Barner to PHI 28 for 13 yards (31-A.Phillips).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 24%

    (1:04) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to LAC 10, Center-45-R.Lovato. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 13 for 3 yards (33-D.McDougle).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 96%

    (:04) 9-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:49) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to LAC 13, Center-45-R.Lovato. 12-T.Benjamin MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 12. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 12 for no gain (42-C.Maragos).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

    (7:56) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to PHI 10, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-K.Barner to PHI 11 for 1 yard (30-A.Ekeler).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 46%

    (5:38) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to LAC 41 for 1 yard (71-D.Square).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 77%

    (1:01) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.