4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 8-D.Kaser punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.26 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model