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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 10

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(:04) 9-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +3.32 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model