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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 29

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 4-J.Elliott 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.78 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model