4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 50

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to PHI 10, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-K.Barner to PHI 11 for 1 yard (30-A.Ekeler).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model