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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Philadelphia Eagles
4th & 1 at the 42
Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 10
What Actually Happened
(5:38) 11-C.Wentz up the middle to LAC 41 for 1 yard (71-D.Square).
The Three Options
GO
+1.36 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.04 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP
KICK
-0.68 EP
- 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
- 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
