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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 27

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(:10) 4-J.Elliott 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.80 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model