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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 16

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 8-D.Kaser punts 53 yards to PHI 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-K.Barner to PHI 28 for 13 yards (31-A.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model