4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

JAX
52.9%
NYJ
47.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.218 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Josh McCown (NYJ) -0.115 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.068 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22
–
NYJ 20
Projected margin: JAX by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

JAX

Lerentee McCray LB Out Knee
Jaelen Strong WR Out Hamstring
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Knee
Donald Payne LB Questionable Hamstring

NYJ

Matt Forte RB Out Knee
Jordan Leggett TE Out Knee
Josh Martin LB Doubtful Ankle
Brandon Shell T Doubtful Shoulder
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 20
–
NYJ 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:08 TD JAX (8:08) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 27-L.Fournette for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 08:02 TD NYJ (8:02) 97-L.Thomas reported in as eligible. 29-B.Powell right tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. JAX 7 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 05:13 FG JAX (5:13) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 10 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 01:14 FG NYJ (1:14) 7-C.Catanzaro 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. JAX 10 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 10:13 TD NYJ (10:13) 25-E.McGuire left guard for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – NYJ 16
  • Q3 00:38 FG NYJ (:38) 7-C.Catanzaro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. JAX 10 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 10:33 TD JAX (10:33) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 19, RECOVERED by JAX-44-M.Jack at JAX 19. 44-M.Jack for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the backward pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. JAX 16 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 00:49 FG JAX (:49) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 20 – NYJ 20
  • Q5 00:32 FG NYJ (:32) 7-C.Catanzaro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. JAX 20 – NYJ 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:22) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to JAX 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:51) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to NYJ 13, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 39%

    (12:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to JAX 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (5:13) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 81%

    (1:14) 7-C.Catanzaro 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:57) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to NYJ 31, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 23%

    (10:56) 3-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to NYJ 18, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 17 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:19) 3-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to NYJ 8, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:13) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to JAX 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (:38) 7-C.Catanzaro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 67%

    (13:06) 2-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 49%

    (7:04) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:01) 3-B.Nortman punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (:49) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.