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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 41

New York Jets 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.43 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP