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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 3-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to NYJ 18, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model