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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 4

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(:49) 2-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.58 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model