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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 3-B.Nortman punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP