Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – New York Jets 10

(:57) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to NYJ 31, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 14-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model