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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 3-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to NYJ 8, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model