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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 8

New York Jets 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(:38) 7-C.Catanzaro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 8, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model