4th & Data
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
@
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 20:30 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 12.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

IND
37.3%
SEA
62.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Jacoby Brissett (IND): -0.064 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA defense: -0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

IND

Andrew Luck QB Out right Shoulder
Chester Rogers WR Out Hamstring
Anthony Walker LB Out Hamstring
Quincy Wilson CB Out Knee
Ryan Kelly C Out Foot
Marlon Mack RB Out Shoulder
Matthias Farley S Questionable Quadricep
Chris Milton CB Questionable Hamstring

SEA

C.J. Prosise RB Doubtful Ankle
Neiko Thorpe CB Questionable Ankle
Doug Baldwin WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 18
–
SEA 46

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:03 FG SEA (9:03) 7-B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. IND 0 – SEA 3
  • Q1 03:38 SAF IND (3:38) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 21-J.McKissic [27-N.Hairston]. Indianapolis challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked in End Zone for -6 yards, SAFETY (27-N.Hairston). IND 2 – SEA 3
  • Q2 12:32 TD SEA (12:32) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 17-K.Aiken INTERCEPTED by 28-J.Coleman at IND 28. 28-J.Coleman for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 2 – SEA 9
  • Q2 05:35 TD IND (5:35) 62-L.Clark reported in as eligible. 33-R.Turbin left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 8 – SEA 10
  • Q2 00:30 TD IND (:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 10-D.Moncrief for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 14 – SEA 10
  • Q3 10:10 TD SEA (10:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to IND 1 for 22 yards (20-D.Butler). Seattle challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 15 – SEA 16
  • Q3 04:57 FG IND (4:57) 4-A.Vinatieri 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 18 – SEA 18
  • Q3 02:19 TD SEA (2:19) 21-J.McKissic right end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 18 – SEA 24
  • Q3 02:09 TD SEA (2:09) 7-J.Brissett sacked at IND 15 for -7 yards (97-M.Smith). FUMBLES (97-M.Smith), RECOVERED by SEA-54-B.Wagner at IND 21. 54-B.Wagner for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-92-N.Jones was injured during the play. IND-84-J.Doyle was injured during the play. His return is Probable. IND 18 – SEA 31
  • Q4 11:22 TD SEA (11:22) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 82-L.Willson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 18 – SEA 38
  • Q4 02:28 TD SEA (2:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 21-J.McKissic for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 18 – SEA 45

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:09) 2-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to SEA 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 83%

    (9:03) 7-B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 60%

    (5:02) 2-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to SEA 1, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-41-M.Farley.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:16) 2-R.Sanchez punts 32 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-44-A.Morrison.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 25%

    (13:47) 9-J.Ryan punts 35 yards to IND 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:08) 2-R.Sanchez punts 61 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-42-K.Moore.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 87%

    (4:57) 4-A.Vinatieri 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:10) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to SEA 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 80%

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 21-J.McKissic for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.