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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 18 – Seattle Seahawks 32

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to SEA 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model