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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 2-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to SEA 1, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-41-M.Farley.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP