4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 22

Indianapolis Colts 15 – Seattle Seahawks 18

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 4-A.Vinatieri 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model