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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 15 – Seattle Seahawks 18

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 2-R.Sanchez punts 61 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-42-K.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP