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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Indianapolis Colts 2

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 9-J.Ryan punts 35 yards to IND 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.13 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model