4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 2-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to SEA 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 73, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 31, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model