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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 25

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 7-B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.70 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP