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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

0-1 HC Anthony Lynn
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

1-0 HC Vance Joseph
Monday 2017-09-11 · 22:20 ET Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

LAC
41.6%
DEN
58.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DEN defense: -0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)
  • LAC defense: +0.015 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LAC 21 14–28
–
DEN 22 15–29
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

LAC

Mike Williams WR Out Back
Jeremiah Attaochu DE Questionable Hamstring
Tre Boston S Questionable Calf
Dontrelle Inman WR Questionable Groin
Sean McGrath TE Questionable Knee

DEN

Devontae Booker RB Out Wrist
Jared Crick DE Out Back
Zach Kerr DT Out Knee
Paxton Lynch QB Out right Shoulder
Kyle Peko DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 21
–
DEN 24

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:58 TD DEN (4:58) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 16-B.Fowler for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-99-J.Bosa, Defensive Offside, declined. LAC 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD LAC (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 28-M.Gordon for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Wolfe]. LAC 6 – DEN 7
  • Q2 05:33 TD DEN (5:33) 13-T.Siemian scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – DEN 13
  • Q3 10:31 TD DEN (10:31) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left to 16-B.Fowler for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – DEN 20
  • Q3 00:03 FG DEN (:03) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. LAC 7 – DEN 24
  • Q4 08:15 TD LAC (8:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LAC-13-K.Allen, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. LAC 13 – DEN 24
  • Q4 07:07 TD LAC (7:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 12-T.Benjamin for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – DEN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to LAC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:02) 8-D.Kaser punts 43 yards to DEN 25, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds. PENALTY on LAC-24-Tr.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 25.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LAC 18, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 15 for -3 yards (14-C.Latimer).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:20) 8-D.Kaser punts 59 yards to DEN 13, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-I.McKenzie ran ob at DEN 44 for 31 yards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 49%

    (1:56) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to DEN 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 18 for 9 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:29) 8-D.Kaser punts 62 yards to DEN 12, Center-47-M.Windt. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 20 for 8 yards (31-A.Phillips; 58-N.Harris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (:03) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 26%

    (12:02) 75-C.Hairston reported in as eligible. 28-M.Gordon up the middle to 50 for -2 yards (51-T.Davis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 20%

    (3:15) 8-D.Kaser punts 36 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-51-K.Emanuel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to LAC 38, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 17%

    (:42) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 49 for 2 yards (58-V.Miller).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 80%

    (:05) 9-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-S.Harris), Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

    See the full breakdown →